Today I did a complete top-down and bottom-up analysis of commodities.  You can view the full recording in the two YouTube videos shown below.

Key takeaways:

  • Long-term trend towards lower inflation and/or deflation remains in place
  • Rising USD may provide a short-term impetus for commodity decline
  • I expect base metals (e.g. copper) to be the weakest of all commodities going forward
  • Recent rallies in gold and oil seem driven by fear and geopolitical concerns; likely to be reversed.

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